Are diamonds actually rare?
Updated November 2026
Gem diamonds are mined by the hundred-million-carat and supply was deliberately managed by a cartel for most of a century. The genuinely rare thing is a large, high-grade stone — which is the one place the rarity premium is real.
What's actually true
Well over 100 million carats of diamonds come out of the ground in a typical year, before counting the lab reactors. For most of the 20th century De Beers controlled the overwhelming majority of rough supply and released it at a pace that kept prices firm — scarcity as a business model, not a geological fact. That grip has loosened, but "diamonds are rare" survives as the sales line.
The honest version: rarity scales with size and grade. Small gem diamonds are commodity-plentiful. A clean, well-cut 3 carat natural stone genuinely is scarce — which is why natural prices climb exponentially with carat weight (a 2 ct costs three to four times a 1 ct, not double). And lab-grown diamonds aren't rare at any size, which is why their prices are both low and flat.
Where the claim comes from
Rarity justifies price. A product that's actually plentiful but priced like it's scarce needs the story more than the geology. The claim does its heaviest lifting at the small-stone counter, where it's least true.
What it means for your wallet
Pay the rarity premium only where rarity exists. Under ~1.5 carats, natural stones are plentiful and shoppable like any commodity — comp aggressively. At big carat weights, decide whether you're buying the scarcity (natural, priced like it) or the look (lab, at 80–85% off). Both are legitimate; only one should be sold to you as "rare."
Receipts
- Global rough production: 100M+ carats annually across major producers
- De Beers' historical control of rough supply (80%+ for much of the 20th century) and its stockpile-and-release model
- The natural price curve itself: exponential with size — the market's own confession about where rarity starts
The bottom line: "rare" is a size-dependent claim sold as a universal one. Small diamonds are plentiful; big clean ones aren't; lab ones never are. Price accordingly.